Oxford County:
Last
year, in the first quarter of 2018 Sales fell over 30% following the record
year of 2017. The number of homes
available for sale in 2018 decreased as well pushing price up. This year, in 2019 Sales of homes in the First
Quarter increased marginally by +1.7%. Sales leveled off in March falling -8.8%
following 2 strong months +7.3% in January and +12% in February. Below is a
chart showing the number of homes sold by price category. The strongest category in Oxford County is
the $300,000 to $350,000 price range selling 77 homes in 3 months.
The number days that it took to sell the average home started the year at 55 days. Obviously, this time period would be much shorter for the homes in the $300,000 to $450 price range and longer for the rest as you can see above. The number of days to sell dropped to 50 days in February and 39 days in March. Why does it seem to be a longer time to sell? Active listings are up 18.4% for the first quarter. This increase has been consistent in each month so far ranging between 18.1% for January and February and 18.9% for March. This translates to 4 months’ supply of homes in January increasing to 5 months’ supply in February and dropping down to 4 months’ supply for March because of +12% higher sales in February.
Home owners as a result are getting an average of 99% of asking price. Below is a chart that reflects the percentage each group of home owners are getting by price group across the County. Strongest categories are $200,000 to $400,00
Woodstock:
Last
year the number of homes sold in the first 3 months fell more than 30% following
the record sales in 2017 for the year.
In the first 3 months of 2019 the number homes that sold in Woodstock
fell by 9.7%. This decrease was during the month of March 2019. Up until then, the sales of January and February
were the same as 2018. At the same time,
the number of homes available of sales have been climbing. This number is 1.3%
above the number of homes available last year.
This puts upward pressure on months’ supply of home available for purchase. Currently we have been consistently running
at an average of 4 months’ supply each month.
As we move into the warmer weather and head for the peak in June sales
naturally increase dramatically. The key
now is the average number of days that it takes to sell the average home. In January and February this time frame sat
at an average of 50 days. In March sales
almost double over January and February. As a result, the number of days to sell the average
home dropped to only 28 days on average with home owners getting 99% of asking
price. Please refer to the graph under Oxford County to see how this breaks out
by price range.
As
a result of this upward pressure on number of homes offered for sale and sales down
over last year for the first 3 months, prices are holding flat up only $222.00 at
$370,199 over last year’s average selling price.
Once
again, the number of homes coming to market is the key. Sales now are typically much stronger. We are
still confident that we will see a 5% to 8% increase for this year. Please refer to the comments regarding CMHC
in the Oxford County Section above.
Ingersoll:
The number of homes sold in Ingersoll is up dramatically
for the first 3 months of 2019. Setting the
lead in County. At the end of March after
3 months the number of homes sold is up +48.3%. Sales were +66.7% in January
and +72.7% in February and continued into March softening a bit to +20%. The number of homes offered for sale also climbed
dramatically by 82.9% for this 3-month period in 2019 versus a year ago. The
number of days to sell the average house sat at 53 days in January then dropped
to 25 days in February and dropped again in March 2019 to only 21 days. The sales of homes and the number of homes
available currently sits at 3 months’ supply down from 4 in February. The
average home as a result received 100% of their asking price in Ingersoll during
the first 3 months of 2019. Refer to the
graph under the Oxford county for a typical listing price to selling price
percentage based on price categories. This graph holds true for the entire
area.
As
a result of these sales increases, price have risen nicely here. The activity in this market combined with only
3 months supply of homes in both January and March have moved the average home
in Ingersoll to within $9,968, or a difference of only +2.6% when compared to
the average home price in Woodstock. It used to run at +10% to +15%. The
average price increase for a home sold in Ingersoll year to date is up +7.8% or
$26,119 over the average for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2018. An
amazing result when you consider Woodstock increased only $222 over the last 12-month
period.
Based
on the 3-month supply of homes offered for sale in this area it is logical that
prices will continue to rise and hold over the months ahead. The average price in
this area like Woodstock is well within the target range of the new CMHC proposed
First Time Buyer support program.
Norwich Township:
The
number of homes sold for 3 months is not significant in this area. For example, so far this year there have been
only 21 sales, down from 26 sales in the same 3-month period last year. This
translates into a decrease of -19.2% for the 3 months of 2019. March sales dropped -50% from 10 homes sold
last year to 5 homes sold this year impacting the first quarter. As time passes and the number of sales
increases this will be more meaningful. The number of homes available for sale
also fell during the first 3 months of 2019 by 6.8%. During March there were 47
homes offered for sale across Norwich Township. Typically, the average home
owner was getting 99.5% or better of their asking price in both January and February. This fell dramatically in March to 96.6% due
to the decline in demand during the month across Oxford County. Putting the March number aside and looking at
January and February results only, average days it takes to sell a home in
Norwich County is around 40 days. Inventories
in Norwich traditionally run close to a balanced market of close to 6 months supply
of homes offered for sale. However, Buyers
don’t tend to just look at Norwich County but consider the prices based on Oxford
County averages which sit at 4 months’ supply.
Prices
across Norwich County based on 21 sales in the first 3 months of 2019 are well
above the average for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2018. The base of
21 homes is too low to have any real statistical value. The average price of
these 21 sales is up $61,087 to $469,061. More important is the average for 12
months over 2018 reported at the end of last year at $407,974.
Summary:
Sales
did slump everywhere across the County except Ingersoll, but this is following
a stronger January and February, Weather may have been a player. The future depends on the number homes
offered for sale. If we get to 6 months availability
of homes offered for sale or higher price increases will slow. But, there is the
introduction of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation administration of
the proposed “First Time Buyer Down Payment Support Program”, combined with
Buyers coming into our area from the GTA, and continued aggressive immigration activity
it is likely we will achieve our forecast of at least 5% to 8% for 2019. We are above the 12-month average increase for
2018 so far this year.
Today
is the lowest price that you will pay for a home in this area. Prices always go up. The world recession and drop
in 2008 was more than offset in 2009!
This is not Toronto or Vancouver. Our average prices are still the most
affordable in Canada. Homes will never be more affordable. Rent does not build equity, home ownership
does.
If
you know someone who would benefit from our help, please tell them that you are
passing along their contact information to us and we will take great care of
them. In closing once again this is not
the time to downsize or cash out unless you must.
Gib& Mary Heggtveit
Broker
and Sales Representative
Home Office 519-421-2626
