Your Market Update for the Year 2017 Across Oxford
County
OXFORD
COUNTY:
What an exciting year for Home Owners in our
County! New record set on single year price gains. Here’s the interesting part, the number of
homes sold in 2017 rose only 2.4% over the previous year. This small increase
was the result of fewer homes offered for sale in 2017. Supply improved in the
back half of the year. At the June peak
inventory of homes available for sale sat at only 1 month’s supply, However, in
the last few months inventories of homes available rose from 3 months supply in
September and October to 4 months in November and 5 months in December. Almost
a balanced market.
What happened to prices? The average price of a
home across Oxford County rose a whopping 19%, or an average of $52,739
(Average home price is now $330,696) for the 12-month period ending December
31, 2017. Home owners were getting 99.9% of asking for the 12-month period, up
from 98.3% in 2016. The number of average days it took to sell a home dropped
from 53 days for 2016, to 33 days for 2017.
Inventories are up but still well below 2016 levels. We are starting the year with marginally higher
inventories. Remember we finished 2017 with 49 days supply compared to 45 days
to start that ripper of a year. Inventories to start 2016 was 65 days supply. A
Balanced Market is +180 days supply. All
indications are another increase in prices above the average but well below the
19% enjoyed last year. As of the 20th day of January, 2018, home owners are getting 98.7% od asking price. As of Thursday January 18, 2018 all five Banks now offer a prime lending rate to their best customers of 3.45%. Prior to the Bank of Canada's move, there rates were all at 3.2%. This should have little effect on First time Buyers or Move Up Buyers. Also if liquidating, you are better to wait and take further advantage of market increases.
WOODSTOCK:
The number of homes sold in Woodstock rose 3.2%
for the year 2017 versus the previous 12-month period. Once again fewer homes
were offered for sale. As goes Woodstock, so goes the rest of the County.
Woodstock accounts for 49.3% of the recorded sales for the County. December 2016 enjoyed excellent sales results
in Woodstock with sales of 56 homes.
This set the tone for 2017 with 45 days of inventory to start the
year. The average number of days it took
to sell a home in 2017 was 29 days. The average in 2016 was 43 days. As in the rest of the County the number homes
offered for sale has increased. The year started with 1 month’s supply and
stayed at this level for the first 6 months and then began to climb in the back
half of the year. Currently statistics indicate that we finished the year with
4 months’ supply and still rising.
What did the limited supply of homes offered
for sale in the first 6 months of 2017 deliver to the average home seller? The average home owner enjoyed a record 20.2%
($56,068) increase in the price of their home in 2017. The average home is now
worth $333,270. The average price of a
home in Woodstock is now higher than the average home in the City of
London. If the supply of homes offered
for sale continues to increase, we will see prices slow to 5% increase or less.
Our projection for South Western Ontario is above this. The area continues to have limits on supply
in several areas. As for Woodstock as of
January 20, 2018 we have sold 19 homes.
If we project this number to the end of the month (31 days of sales) we
will finish at 29 homes sold compared to 41 in 2016 and 60 in 2017. The number of homes offered for sale is 68%
above January 2017 but still 8% below homes listed for sale in 2016. The slower sales in January will improve
Buyer choices. This means the year will start slower. The number of days to sell
a home will increase above 45 days. The
outlook should still be positive, and inventories are bound to be limited as we
move into the Spring. This is an
excellent time to Move Up or to buy that First Home.
INGERSOLL:
The number of homes that sold in 2017 increased
3.8% above the 12 previous months. Similar levels of fewer homes offered for
sales drove price increases above historic levels. For example, in January 2016
there were 48 homes offered for sale and January 2017 this dropped to 31
homes. 2017 finished the year with
inventories only 5.9% above 2016 at 36 homes offered. It is also still 25%
lower than 2016. This means this area is well primed for the start of the year.
However, Buyers are slow to come to market so far.
The CAMI strike in September did create some
stress on home action in Ingersoll. CAMI
employs 2800 skilled workers. The new
4-year workers’ contract guaranteed 1% increase in salary for each year of the new
contract, along with a $2000 lump payment each year, has calmed this market for
the time being. Long term there are no
guarantees that GM won’t move production to their 2 Equinox plants in Mexico.
So, what happened to housing prices? The
average home has now increased 15.3% or $38,460 (now $289,299) in the Town of
Ingersoll for 2017 versus 2016. The average number of days to sell a home
dropped from 71 days in 2016 to 56 days in 2017. Surprisingly, the lowest
number of home available for sale were offered in June and July 2017 at less than
30 days of supply, just ahead of the CAMI strike in September. Sales slowed in back half but so did the
number of available homes. We started 2017 with 43 homes offered and finished
2017 with 39 homes offered. The number of homes to start 2017 was 18% higher
than what is currently on the market.
The fact that Woodstock increased to $333,270
on average, makes Ingersoll pricing at $288,299, a savings of 13.9%, very
attractive and is still growing. Ingersoll seems to move between 10% and 15%
below Woodstock average price. Ingersoll offers similar excellent value based
on its proximity to London, Brantford, as well as K.W. and Toronto. Prices here are still nicely above East
London ($252.826) and St. Thomas ($259,983).
NORWICH:
This area is an anomaly. The actual number of
homes sold in 2017 was identical to the number sold the year before in Norwich
Township. The number of homes offered for sale over the year was very similar
to the year before. 2017 started off
with almost a balanced market in January moving to a moderate Sellers’ Market
with around 4 to 5 months supply. The only exception took place In May 2017 when
available homes dropped to a single month’s supply homes for sale. This helped
put upward pressure on prices.
The average price still rose by 18% Just under
City of Woodstock at $55,607. The new average price for Norwich Township now
sits at $364,741, the highest in Oxford County which is surprising, based on the
level of the numbers of homes for sale across the Township (at higher levels
than the rest of the County). Clearly, Norwich is benefiting from its proximity
to Brant County and Woodstock. Back in
2016 it took an average of 71 days to sell a home and home owners were getting
97.5% of original asking price. Ins 2017 The time it took to sell a home
dropped to 56 days (still well above the county average of 33 days) and home
owners were getting 98.0% of asking. So
far, this year with sales to be projected flat for January, home owners are
getting 96.5% of asking. The slower sales across the County for January are
pulling at the variance of selling price to listing price down in Norwich
Township, despite lower number of listings and days supply. This again reinforces a performance based on
Woodstock and the County at large. Our
projection for the county remains strong for 2018. Therefore, we can anticipate
growth above 5% as projected for the rest of the county. The number of days to sell should hover
around the 60-day level for most of 2018.
SUMMARY:
Based on a 3.45% prime
lending rate and fixed 5-year rates below 4% and projected continuous growth
for the economy by the Bank of Canada, the buying environment is still very
favorable. Some 47% of mortgages are up for renewal over the next 12 months - meaning the bulk borrowers.
Will there be a Market Correction? This is not
likely to occur in South Western Ontario! How can you correct what is not out
of balance? This corridor is not
Toronto, nor is Vancouver or Calgary. We
have not seen our prices rise 500% since 2004.
An average of 3% to 5% per year is normal growth. When we factor in last year at 15% to 20% for
our trading area, it still puts us well below even a lower Toronto average
price of $800,000. We are a bargain!
Once again, buying into this market by either buying your First Home, or Moving
Up, to your Dream Home, in the year ahead based on the average price of a home
in Oxford County you will be putting an average of more than $16,000 in your
pocket not to mention the equity gained by paying down Your Mortgage (not a
Landlord’s Mortgage). That’s why Canadians love Home Ownership.
CONTACT:
Gib
& Mary Heggtveit
Broker
& Sales Representative
RE/MAX
Centre City Realty Inc.
Direct: 519-421-2626
Gib’s Cell: 519-535-3975 Mary’s
Cell: 519-535-3975
Email: Gib@YourFavouriteRealtors.com
