Your Oxford County  

Third Quarter 2018 Update

Our Trading Area:

The Real Estate Market is still “Hot” with prices rising and low inventories across our trading area.  Sales on a year-to-date basis are still below last year’s record of 28,831 sales for the area by -21.9%. We started 2018 with sales running 30% below 2017. That gap has narrowed by a stronger 3^rd quarter.  The number of homes available for Sale rose to 5 months’ supply and fell to four months’ supply for the 3 months.  A balanced market is 6 months’ supply.  This is still very much a Sellers’ Market.

The average price of a Home in our trading area moved up the first 9 months of 2018 by a whopping 10.6% over the first nine months of 2017 and now sits at $366,025 for a home in our trading area. It was at $330,970 as of last September based on a rolling year average.

City of Woodstock:

The number of homes sold this year in the City of Woodstock itself are now only off -29.0%. Remember we started over 30% below last year’s record year. We’ve dropped back to traditional sales levels. We have explained previously that a balanced market (good supply and good demand) is 6 months supply.  We have been averaging 4 months’ supply for this year.  This lower number of Homes for Sale puts significant upward pressure on prices.  This year the City of Woodstock delivered Home Owners an average minimum of +99% of their list price. In In August and September Home Owners were getting above 98% of their asking prices. This is a quieter time of year but still very active. The number of days that it took to sell the average home in Woodstock moved between 37 and 34 days for July, August and September and now sits at 43 days

 

As you can see on the graph above, selling price of Homes in the City have risen nicely. Last year at this time the Average Selling Price of a Home in Woodstock reached $339,490. Home Owners will be pleased to know that this year the Average Selling Price is up above my projection and sits up 15.9% or $54,474 of the first 9 months of 2018.  September as you can see by the Graph above hit $400,000.

Buyers coming into or Living in Woodstock don’t like paying more than $600,000 for premium homes. The number of homes sold this year priced between $600K to $700K is about -60% lower than homes prices between $500K and 600K. Here is a graph that illustrated activity by price this year. Remember this is the top end of our market.

Ingersoll:

Sales in Ingersoll are now only down -22.4%, on a year to date basis over last year’s recordin line with the overall County results.

The number of Home sold in the last 4 months have surpassed the same four months of 2017. 3^rd Quarter results and are up 58.7%.  Inventories are low, running at 3 months supply of homes for sale from June to now. It took 23 days to sell a home in September down from 28 days in August. What does all this mean? Well, its still very much a Seller’s Market based on demand and the number of homes coming to market that are offered for sale. Home Owners are consistently getting consistently getting 100% of asking price. 

 

As you can see by the graph above, Ingersoll selling prices have risen nicely.  The Average Home Selling Price last year reached $410,594 in North London. This year prices for the first 9 months have reached +11.9% or a gain of $34,723 for an average Home. The new Average Selling price in Ingersoll is now $326,654. One other interesting number to share with you. In the last three months average selling price has been above the average for the year, hitting as high as $416,104 based on the average of 20 Homes Sold in September.  Remember when Buying, or Selling, look at comparable homes.  Your decision to Sell, or to Buy, will be based on a realistic price. We must stress again, that we believe this upward price trend will continue but should slow next year to more normal annual increases. We recommend that Buyers “MOVING UP” or “FIRST TIME BUYER”. Do it right now! Sellers that want to “DOWNSIZE” Don’t Do It Now! You are throwing away equity, unless you must. Remember that there are always Equity Mortgage’s available…

Norwich:

The number of Homes Sold in Norwich Township though small in numbers have performed solidly on a year-to-date basis. The decline over last year’s record Sales of Homes is only -10.8% or 92 Homes Sold this year. The number of Home offered for sale now sits at 5 months’ supply of Homes for Sale, down from a Balanced Market in June and July at 6 Months’ supply.  The average days to sell, because of the slower time of year, has been running 59 days for July and August but did drop marginally to 55 days for September.   The average Home Owner in Norwich Township has experienced fewer competitive bid situations and are getting an average 98.2% of their asking price. What does all this mean?
 .

Sale prices for Homes in Norwich Township are now up 8.6% over the first 9 months of 2017. This represents an average increase in value and equity of $33,281. The average Home in Norwich Township now sells for $406,537 up from $373,256 in September last year, based again on nine months of sales of homes. As you can see things are still moving up! We must stress again that we believe this upward price trend will continue but should slow next year to more normal annual increases. We recommend that Buyers “MOVING UP” or “FIRST TIME BUYER”. Do it right now! Sellers that want to “DOWNSIZE” Don’t Do It Now! You are throwing away equity, unless you must. Remember that there are always Equity Mortgage’s available…

.

If we are running close to last year’s sales of homes now, we should Buy and Sell close to 25 homes between October and December.  Based on the price trends in the last few months we will see additional price gains.

If you are thinking of liquidating or downsizing, “DON’T DO IT NOW “, unless you have to.

Summary:

We are here to “Help”, You, Your Family, Your Neighbours, Your Co-Workers and Your Friends!  Any time to Buy or Sell, is a good time in this “Hot Market”!   Why?  If you are paying rent the Housing Market is leaving you behind.  Any home ownership is keeping pace for your ability to move up as you build equity too.  It is also a good time to move up, let’s say the difference is value of your Home to the Home you want to Buy is $75,000.  Doing it now, may put $5000 to $7500 future equity in your pocket, if the Market moves anther 6% to 10 %.  This is not a time to procrastinate. An average of 10.2 Homes sell every month across Norwich Township in 2018.

If we are running close to last year’s sales of homes now, we should Buy and Sell close to 25 homes between October and December.  Based on the price trends in the last few months we will see additional price gains.CALL TODAY:

Gib Heggtviet                        Mary Heggtveit

Real Estate Broker               Sales Representative

Direct: 519-535-3975            Direct: 519-535-7355

Gib@YourFavouriteRealtors.com Mary@YourFavouriteRealtors.com

Prices Don’t stay Down EVER!  Look below at the average prices for 2008 when World recession hit and 2009 when we started recovery in back half.

Don’t “Wish You Did”

Call Now: 
519-421-2626

Your 6 Month Market Update for Oxford County 2018

Oxford Overview:

The number of homes sold over the last six months is down over last year (a record year) by 32.9%. The number of homes offeres for sale tarted 2018 with slightly over 4 months supply and then dropped in March to less than 3 months.  Remember a balanced market is 6 months’ supply.  Since March the number of homes offered for sale have increased every month and now sit at 5 months’ supply. This will improve Buyer’s ability to negotiate marginally.  Prices are up nicely by 7.5% over last year’s record price increases. The average home across Oxford County is now worth $358,795 which is an increase of $25,097 for the first 6 months of 2018.  If inventories continue to increase, we may experience some leveling in price increases.  Home owners are now getting an average of 98.4% of their asking prices. In my last report the number of homes available was lower and we were heavily into bidding wars. This activity has cooled somewhat because of the continued increase in available properties. Prices won’t likely fall as we are still seeing an influx of Toronto Buyers cashing in on their leveling market.  Based on this activity we can expect an increase of about 7% to 8% for the year over 2017.

Woodstock:

Woodstock is following the trend experienced above. The City accounts for 44.8% of sales across Oxford County.  This is down from an average above 50% in past years as the County grows and diversifies. 

Ok, so what has transpired? The number of homes sold this year is down by 39.7% in the first 6 months of this year following last year’s all-time record.  We started 2018 with 4 months’ supply and have been slowly increasing our supply of homes ever since, peaking in May during this 6-month period at 5 months supply. As a defined Seller’s Market (less than a 6-month supply of homes for sale),

We’ve enjoyed nice increases in values for the first half of the year. The average price of a home in Woodstock now sits at $$365,738. This represents and increase of 7.7% or $26,014.  Inventories declined marginally in June as did sales.  It now takes an average of 35 days to sell the average home in Woodstock and home owners are getting over 98% of their asking price.  During February, March and April, homeowners were getting 100% of asking and heavily into bidding wars.   Remember this market is still growing and if fewer home come to market over the months ahead, we will return to Bidding wars.  Now is still a great time to sell or to buy.

Ingersoll:
The number of homes that sold in the first 6 months of this calendar year are off 40.7% versus the first six months of last year’s record year. This lower sales  number is because of the fewer number of homes offered for sale compared to Oxford County as a whole. The number of homes was sitting at about 3 months average for the first 3 months. Now the number of homes offered has increased to about 4.5 months supply based on June sales activity. This lower availability than the rest of the County has translated into constant bidding for homes in Ingersoll in virtually every selling situation. Statistically Ingersoll home owners are getting better than 100% of their asking prices.

So, how are prices?  The average home has increased in value by 8% narrowing the gap between prices in Woodstock to 11.7%. The average home owner in Ingersoll has enjoyed a home value increase of $23,796 to $322,838 for the first 6 months of 2018. Ingersoll is also enjoying the fastest selling time at only 24 days. This aggressiveness should continue if inventories remain well below 6 months’ supply.

Norwich:

Once again, the number homes that sold during the first 6 months of 2018 have returned to more normal levels. Number of homes sold is now down 26% over the same record sales period of 2017. Norwich is now a “Market in Balance” in Oxford County. The number of homes offered for sale jumped from a level marginally below 6 up until May to a Buyer’s dream of a full year’s supply. This number corrected itself in June to about 6.5 months’ supply. This upward pressure on supply enabled Buyer’s to get about 97% of asking prices.

The number days it takes to sell a home in this area has been steadily dropping to where it sits at 29 days on average at the end of June. Many of these negative factors for home owners have been offset by it’s proximity to Woodstock. The result is an increase in the average price upward by 3.1% or $11,625. House prices now sit at an average price of $381,935. This area still sits with an selling price at 4% above Oxford County's average home price

Summary:

What does all this mean? The market is buoyant and will finish with a strong finish once again. Interest rates are still at record lows. Remember demand is the key.  

Example: If you are a Toronto Area resident about to retire or kids have left for University, or you work from home and are sitting on a home worth even $800,000 and you have a low mortgage… What would you do?? Move to Southwestern Ontario. Buy a beautiful dream home for even $600,000 and put close to $200,000 into the bank for a rainy day. That is what is going to continue to drive this market.  I ofte refer to the average price in 2004 in Mississauga, when it was $240,000 and our trading area was at $200,000.  Which Market is most likely to correct?  There is no better time to buy your first home, make a lateral move or move up!  If you are thinking of downsizing, wait until the market comes back into balance.

Please share this update with anyone who will benefit…and ….Remember, Mary and I are here to help you, your family, your friends, your co-workers. Call us with their names, timing, phones and email and we’ll get to work saving them money. There are differences between realtors. We are proud of our results and our Friendships with our many Clients

Gib Heggtveit                           Mary Heggtveit

Broker                                                               Sales Representative         

RE/MAX Centre City Realty Inc                        RE/MAX Centre City Realty Inc

Cell: 519-535-3975                   Cell: 51-535-7355              

Gib@YourFavouriteRealtors.com                         Mary@YourFavouriteRealtors.com

Record Year in Oxford County - Woodstock, Ingersoll et All in 2017

Your Market Update for the Year 2017 Across Oxford County

OXFORD COUNTY:

What an exciting year for Home Owners in our County! New record set on single year price gains.  Here’s the interesting part, the number of homes sold in 2017 rose only 2.4% over the previous year. This small increase was the result of fewer homes offered for sale in 2017. Supply improved in the back half of the year.  At the June peak inventory of homes available for sale sat at only 1 month’s supply, However, in the last few months inventories of homes available rose from 3 months supply in September and October to 4 months in November and 5 months in December. Almost a balanced market.

What happened to prices? The average price of a home across Oxford County rose a whopping 19%, or an average of $52,739 (Average home price is now $330,696) for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2017. Home owners were getting 99.9% of asking for the 12-month period, up from 98.3% in 2016. The number of average days it took to sell a home dropped from 53 days for 2016, to 33 days for 2017.  Inventories are up but still well below 2016 levels.  We are starting the year with marginally higher inventories. Remember we finished 2017 with 49 days supply compared to 45 days to start that ripper of a year. Inventories to start 2016 was 65 days supply. A Balanced Market is +180 days supply.  All indications are another increase in prices above the average but well below the 19% enjoyed last year. As of the 20th day of January, 2018, home owners are getting 98.7% od asking price. As of Thursday January 18, 2018 all five Banks now offer a prime lending rate to their best customers of 3.45%. Prior to the Bank of Canada's move, there rates were all at 3.2%. This should have little effect on First time Buyers or Move Up Buyers. Also if liquidating, you are better to wait and take further advantage of market increases.

WOODSTOCK:

The number of homes sold in Woodstock rose 3.2% for the year 2017 versus the previous 12-month period. Once again fewer homes were offered for sale. As goes Woodstock, so goes the rest of the County. Woodstock accounts for 49.3% of the recorded sales for the County.  December 2016 enjoyed excellent sales results in Woodstock with sales of 56 homes.  This set the tone for 2017 with 45 days of inventory to start the year.  The average number of days it took to sell a home in 2017 was 29 days. The average in 2016 was 43 days.  As in the rest of the County the number homes offered for sale has increased. The year started with 1 month’s supply and stayed at this level for the first 6 months and then began to climb in the back half of the year. Currently statistics indicate that we finished the year with 4 months’ supply and still rising.

What did the limited supply of homes offered for sale in the first 6 months of 2017 deliver to the average home seller?  The average home owner enjoyed a record 20.2% ($56,068) increase in the price of their home in 2017. The average home is now worth $333,270.  The average price of a home in Woodstock is now higher than the average home in the City of London.  If the supply of homes offered for sale continues to increase, we will see prices slow to 5% increase or less. Our projection for South Western Ontario is above this.  The area continues to have limits on supply in several areas.  As for Woodstock as of January 20, 2018 we have sold 19 homes.  If we project this number to the end of the month (31 days of sales) we will finish at 29 homes sold compared to 41 in 2016 and 60 in 2017.  The number of homes offered for sale is 68% above January 2017 but still 8% below homes listed for sale in 2016.  The slower sales in January will improve Buyer choices. This means the year will start slower. The number of days to sell a home will increase above 45 days.  The outlook should still be positive, and inventories are bound to be limited as we move into the Spring.  This is an excellent time to Move Up or to buy that First Home.

INGERSOLL:

The number of homes that sold in 2017 increased 3.8% above the 12 previous months. Similar levels of fewer homes offered for sales drove price increases above historic levels. For example, in January 2016 there were 48 homes offered for sale and January 2017 this dropped to 31 homes.  2017 finished the year with inventories only 5.9% above 2016 at 36 homes offered. It is also still 25% lower than 2016. This means this area is well primed for the start of the year. However, Buyers are slow to come to market so far. 

The CAMI strike in September did create some stress on home action in Ingersoll.  CAMI employs 2800 skilled workers.  The new 4-year workers’ contract guaranteed 1% increase in salary for each year of the new contract, along with a $2000 lump payment each year, has calmed this market for the time being.  Long term there are no guarantees that GM won’t move production to their 2 Equinox plants in Mexico.

So, what happened to housing prices? The average home has now increased 15.3% or $38,460 (now $289,299) in the Town of Ingersoll for 2017 versus 2016. The average number of days to sell a home dropped from 71 days in 2016 to 56 days in 2017. Surprisingly, the lowest number of home available for sale were offered in June and July 2017 at less than 30 days of supply, just ahead of the CAMI strike in September.  Sales slowed in back half but so did the number of available homes. We started 2017 with 43 homes offered and finished 2017 with 39 homes offered. The number of homes to start 2017 was 18% higher than what is currently on the market.

The fact that Woodstock increased to $333,270 on average, makes Ingersoll pricing at $288,299, a savings of 13.9%, very attractive and is still growing. Ingersoll seems to move between 10% and 15% below Woodstock average price. Ingersoll offers similar excellent value based on its proximity to London, Brantford, as well as K.W. and Toronto.  Prices here are still nicely above East London ($252.826) and St. Thomas ($259,983).

NORWICH:

This area is an anomaly. The actual number of homes sold in 2017 was identical to the number sold the year before in Norwich Township. The number of homes offered for sale over the year was very similar to the year before.  2017 started off with almost a balanced market in January moving to a moderate Sellers’ Market with around 4 to 5 months supply. The only exception took place In May 2017 when available homes dropped to a single month’s supply homes for sale. This helped put upward pressure on prices.

The average price still rose by 18% Just under City of Woodstock at $55,607. The new average price for Norwich Township now sits at $364,741, the highest in Oxford County which is surprising, based on the level of the numbers of homes for sale across the Township (at higher levels than the rest of the County). Clearly, Norwich is benefiting from its proximity to Brant County and Woodstock.  Back in 2016 it took an average of 71 days to sell a home and home owners were getting 97.5% of original asking price. Ins 2017 The time it took to sell a home dropped to 56 days (still well above the county average of 33 days) and home owners were getting 98.0% of asking.  So far, this year with sales to be projected flat for January, home owners are getting 96.5% of asking. The slower sales across the County for January are pulling at the variance of selling price to listing price down in Norwich Township, despite lower number of listings and days supply.  This again reinforces a performance based on Woodstock and the County at large.  Our projection for the county remains strong for 2018. Therefore, we can anticipate growth above 5% as projected for the rest of the county.  The number of days to sell should hover around the 60-day level for most of 2018.

SUMMARY:

Based on a 3.45% prime lending rate and fixed 5-year rates below 4% and projected continuous growth for the economy by the Bank of Canada, the buying environment is still very favorable.  Some 47% of mortgages are up for renewal over the next 12 months - meaning the bulk borrowers. 

Will there be a Market Correction? This is not likely to occur in South Western Ontario! How can you correct what is not out of balance?  This corridor is not Toronto, nor is Vancouver or Calgary.  We have not seen our prices rise 500% since 2004.  An average of 3% to 5% per year is normal growth.  When we factor in last year at 15% to 20% for our trading area, it still puts us well below even a lower Toronto average price of $800,000.  We are a bargain! Once again, buying into this market by either buying your First Home, or Moving Up, to your Dream Home, in the year ahead based on the average price of a home in Oxford County you will be putting an average of more than $16,000 in your pocket not to mention the equity gained by paying down Your Mortgage (not a Landlord’s Mortgage). That’s why Canadians love Home Ownership.

CONTACT:

Gib & Mary Heggtveit

Broker & Sales Representative

RE/MAX Centre City Realty Inc.

Direct:             519-421-2626

Gib’s Cell:       519-535-3975      Mary’s Cell:        519-535-3975

Email:             Gib@YourFavouriteRealtors.com